Sunday, March 23, 2008

Happy Easter

It was a cold Easter morning for those who ventured out this morning for a sunrise service. The morning low dropped to 21F here at home.

Do you realize how early Easter is this year? As I recently learned, Easter is always the 1st Sunday after the 1st full moon after the Spring Equinox (which is March 20). This dating of Easter is based on the lunar calendar that Hebrew people used to identify passover, which is why it moves around on our Roman calendar. Found out a couple of things you might be interested in! Based on the above, Easter can actually be one day earlier (March 22) but that is pretty rare. Here 's the interesting info. This year is the earliest Easter any of us will ever see the rest of our lives! And only the most elderly of our population have ever seen it this early (95 years old or above!). And none of us have ever, or will ever, see it a day earlier!

Here are the facts:

1) The next time Easter will be this early (March 23) will be the year 2160 (152 years from now). The last time it was this early was 1913 (so if you're 95 or older, you are the only ones that were around for that!).

2) The next time it will be a day earlier, March 22, will be in the year 2285 (277 years from now). The last time it was on March 22 was 1818. So, no one alive today has or will ever see it any earlier than this year!

How to determine the date of Easter, the annual Christian celebration of Christ's resurrection, is something of a mystery to the average person. Unlike most other significant dates on the western calendar, which fall either on fixed dates (e.g., Halloween is always October 31st) or on easily-reckoned relative calendar days (e.g., Thanksgiving in the U.S. is the fourth Thursday in November), Easter moves around from year to year in order to preserve its relationship to the astronomical phenomena (i.e., the season of the year and the phase of the moon) that would have occurred at the time of the resurrection (traditionally reckoned as having taken place in 30 A.D.). In the modern era, Easter Sunday generally falls on the Sunday following the Paschal Full Moon (i.e., the first full moon of Spring in the northern hemisphere, or the first full moon occurring after the date of the vernal equinox). However, since astronomical observations are variable (e.g., the date of the full moon can vary depending upon the location of the observer), the date of Easter is typically calculated from tables. We'll dispense with an explanation of how to perform these calculations (for the curious, such an explanation can be found here) in favor of addressing the main points of the example quoted above. The earliest calendar date on which Easter can fall is March 22, and the latest date is April 25. Easter therefore takes place unusually early this year, as its 2008 date of occurrence is March 23. The last time Easter fell on so early a date was 1913, and the next time it will do so will be in the year 2160. Seeing Easter fall on the earliest possible date, March 22, is an experience that has not been, and (barring some remarkable breakthroughs in longevity) will not be, witnessed by anyone alive today: It last occurred in the year 1818, and it will not happen again until 2285. The odds are considerably better for witnessing a late Easter. Many people are still around from the last time Easter fell on April 25, an event which took place in 1943, and a good many people here today will likely still be around when Easter next falls on April 25, which will occur in 2038.

More Information on the Flooding

Here's a map of the Eastern US that shows the radar estimated rainfall totals for the week ending March 2oth. The flooding was bad here, but incredibly bad across Missouri and Arkansas.

Thursday, March 20, 2008

Wednesday, March 19, 2008

Flooding

We have had over 30 hours of continuous rain in the last two days. Here at the house, we have had 3.29" of rain, but areas to the south have had 3-6" of rain in the same time period. As a result, school was closed today (Wednesday, March 19) due to the rising level of area creeks, streams, and rivers.

The radar image on the left is from the Wilmington, Ohio NWS and is a radar estimate of rain that has fallen since 1pm on Monday, March 17 through today. The second map below, is observed rainfall totals from 7am Tuesday, March 18 through 7am Wednesday, March 19. You can see that in the Evansville area, up to 7 inches of rain had already fallen. I am certain that when today's rain is added to that there were areas with 9 inches of rainfall.

I'm working on uploading some video of the flooding from the Cincinnati area.






Sunday, March 9, 2008

Rapid Snow Melt

It is absolutely amazing how fast the snow from yesterday's storm has melted. The low dropped to 10 this morning, but with strong March sunshine the afternoon temperature topped out at 41. Over half of the snow is gone now. Simply amazing.

Late Winter Snowstorm

The blizzard warning remained in effect through Saturday afternoon, but I don't think blizzard conditions were ever reached. At least not here at home. The strongest wind gust Friday night into Saturday morning was 28mph around 1am Saturday. Yes, the snow was blowing considerably and there were some large drifts, but not a blizzard. Perhaps further east and northeast towards Columbus, Ohio where they received 20.5" of snow, this was the case.

My prediction that we would not see 10" of snow was way off. We ended up with about 12" of snow. Of course, it is very difficult to measure with the snow blowing around so much. There are some places where the ground is completely bare from the wind while in others, the snow two feet deep.
Road conditions seem to be in excellent condition. The March sun is strong and once the snow is cleared from an area, the sun readily melts the remaining snow. I questions whether we'll have school tomorrow. The roads seem fine, but I wonder how many school bus turnarounds and driveways have been cleaned out. I hope we have a snowday. An Alberta Clipper system is heading southeast tonight, so they say we may get another inch or so of snow overnght.

Friday, March 7, 2008

Unique Weather Week

Here are a few pictures taken this week...


I've been behind on posting recently. This has been a very unique week of weather across the area. On Monday, March 3, the temperature was near 70 degrees. The next day, the temperatures dropped through the day and freezing rain moved in coating everything in ice. Interestingly enough though, in the valley, there was no ice. I was driving home from work and as I began to climb out of the valley on Sanes Creek I began to see the ice as the elevation climbed. At the top of the hill it was like an ice wonderland. It was amazing to see such a hugh change in such a short distance considering the change in elevation is only 275 feet. Now today, we're in the midst of a winter storm.

Blizzard Warning


A blizzard warning was issued for all of the Wilmington, OH NWS forecast area this afternoon. A blizzard warning means that there will be sustained winds of 35mph, blowing snow reducing visibilities to 1/4 mile or less, and lasting at least 3 hours. I've heard some forecasters this evening say that this criteria may be met, but that this is more of a borderline blizzard.
Snowfall potential will be drastically reduced as you head towards Indianapolis. Here is a forecast map from WISH-TV 8 in Indianapolis. They've got us in the 8-12" range, you have to compare this though with a forecast from Cincinnati which has us in the 6-10" band of snow with 11-15" over the rest of southwestern Ohio.

I personally don't see us getting 10 inches of snow out of this system. We've got about 4 inches on the ground now though, so depending on whether or not we get a good band of snow to head over us we might squeek out 10 inches. Only time will tell.