Fay Was a Bust, But Here Comes Gustav

It's dry and getting drier here. I was hoping that the remnants of tropical storm Fay would have brought us some much needed rainfall here, but the remnants stayed to our south and east. Eastern Kentucky recieved two inches of rain today and North Carolina received over four inches of rain today. But, there may be a ray of hope on the horizon with hurricane Gustav.

Gustav is currently skirting the southern coastline of Haiti heading towards Cuba. At this point, Gustav is a category 1 hurricane with winds around 80mph. The current track has the storm heading towards New Orleans by early next week. It is expected to reach category 3 strength by the time it reaches land. Already, the city of New Orleans is making evacuation plans and motels and hotels are already sold out as people make plans to head inland. This storm will be the first test of the new levy system since the devastation of Katrina in 2005. It's saddening to say, but three years after hurricane Katrina, parts of New Orleans still look like this...

More About TS Fay

It looks like Fay may be heading back to the west once crossing Florida. The latest forecast track has the storm moving across Georgia and Alabama due to an area of high pressure along east coast. Hopefully that will bring us a lot of rain this weekend.

So far, there has only been some minor damage across Florida with this storm. It didn't become a category 1 hurricane as forecasted.

Tropical Storm Fay

It's been very quiet here lately. We've had very little rain, but the temperatures have continued to be cool. We actually need some rain. The ground is becoming very dry and the grass is beginning to turn brown in spots. Tropical Storm Fay may bring us some rain by the weekend, but most forecasts are taking the remnants of the storm east of the mountains. I have seen one forecast where the storm hops the mountains and ends up in Eastern Kentucky. Who knows what will happen though. Here's a video below showing what the storm was like as it blew across Key West.

It's HOT, but Not Here

Well, so much for the big heat wave. The temperature only rose to the mid 80's today. There were a lot of clouds around, so I imagine that kept the temperatures down.


Here's something interesting. Between 415 am and 445 am CDT August 3rd, the city of Sioux Falls experienced a convective heat burst. Temperatures rose rapidly from the lower 70s to 101 degrees in a very short time. This rapid rise in temperature was also associated with wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph, as well as a rapid drop in dew points. The official high temperature will be 99 degrees as with automated weather stations, only the 5 minute mean temperature and dew point are used.

A heat burst occurs when warm air from 10,000 to 20,000 feet above the surface is forced to the ground. Typically when air comes down to the surface with thunderstorms, it is much colder than the air at the surface. However, especially during the late night and morning, very warm air can be forced to the surface if the air reaches the surface without rainfall occurring. When this happens, the temperature will rise as much as 30 degrees, and the dew point will drop by 20 to 30 degrees. Heat bursts are also accompanied by strong to damaging winds. However, unlike many cases with damaging thunderstorm winds, little to no rain will fall when the heat burst occurs. This is because if it were to rain, the air would rapidly cool and moisten due to evaporation.

HOT - HOT - HOT!

The next two days promise to be the warmest of the summer so far. A ridge of high pressure is working it's way across the plains states which will impact our area. Today, high temperatures in Nebraska reached 111. Click on the map to the left to see the high temperatures across the US on Sunday, August 3. We won't see temperatures in the 100's, but we will see low to mid 90's in the area. Increasing dew points will make the heat even more unbearable. A temp of 95 and a dew point of 75 produces a heat index of 108!

In addition to the heat, the air quality will be poor across the midwest. Today was an ozone action day and tomorrow has been called as well. You can see in the map at right that southern Indiana is in the orange. This means that the air is unhealthy for sensative groups such as young children and the elderly. A cold front should swing across the state on Wednesday clearing the air.

Here's something I found about the air quality on a typical day in Beijing, China. In May, Beijing had an index of 463. The index the last several days though has been moderate with many traffic and industry restrictions now in place for the Olympics. I can't imagine how this will affect the athletes who aren't accustomed to the poor air qualilty.

Air Quality Index
Good(0-50) No health impacts are expected when air quality is in this range.
Moderate(51-100) Unusually sensitive people should consider limiting prolonged outdoor exertion.
Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups(101-150) Limit prolonged outdoor exertion if you have lung disease, such as asthma, or are an older adult or child who is active outdoors.
Unhealthy(151-200) Avoid prolonged outdoor exertion if you have lung disease, such as asthma, or are an older adult or child who is active outdoors. Everyone else should limit outdoor exertion.
Very Unhealthy (201-300) Avoid ALL outdoor exertion if you have lung disease, such as asthma, or are an older adult or child who is active outdoors. Everyone else should limit outdoor exertion.

Dangerous (301+) Everyone should avoid outdoor exertion.