Frosty Night Possible

A frost advisory has been issued for eastern Indiana and all of Ohio. High pressure will be moving into the area overnight leading to clear skies and calm winds. This should allow the temperatures to drop quite a bit overnight and into Thursday morning. Lows should bottom out in the mid 30's overnight. That will lead to some patchy frost.

Tsunami Hits Samoan Islands

A magnitude 8.0 earthquake occurred in the South Pacific today generating a tsunami that struck the Samoa islands. The tsunami waves were 3-5 feet tall, with some reports of 12-15 foot waves, and swept inland by up to a mile. Some news reports are saying that up to 100 people may have been killed with hundreds more injured. The waves swept people and cars from the Pacific islands. Dozens of workers from National Park Service facilities are missing. The full measure of death and destruction remains unclear because of power and communication outages.

A tsunami warning was issued for Hawaii earlier today, but has since been canceled. However, a tsunami advisory remains in effect for the California and Oregon. Here's the text of the advisory from the Tsunami Warning Center in Palmer, Alaska:

...A TSUNAMI ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT WHICH INCLUDES THE
  COASTAL AREAS OF CALIFORNIA AND OREGON FROM THE
  CALIFORNIA-MEXICO BORDER TO THE OREGON-WASHINGTON BORDER...

PERSONS IN TSUNAMI ADVISORY AREAS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE
WATER... OFF THE BEACH AND OUT OF HARBORS AND MARINAS.

TSUNAMI ADVISORIES MEAN THAT A TSUNAMI CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG CURRENTS OR WAVES DANGEROUS TO PERSONS IN OR VERY NEAR
WATER IS IMMINENT OF EXPECTED. SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD INUNDATION
IS NOT EXPECTED FOR AREAS IN AN ADVISORY.

Great Lakes Waves

I found this graphic on the Great Lakes Coastal Forecast page. It's showing the height of the waves on the lakes. What's interesting to see is how high the waves are on the southeastern sides of the lakes. The winds are very strong out of the northwest which is pushing the water up along the eastern shores of the lakes. As a result, big waves and coastal flooding. In fact, there are coastal flood warnings posted for the northern Indiana coast line.

This can be a dangerous time for marine traffic on the lakes. October and November is a period of time in which the seasons are in flux and big storms develop generating waves that can top 30 feet!. In 1975, a large gale blew across the lakes sinking the Edmund Fitzgerald. The Fitzgerald was the biggest freighter on the lakes at the time and sank without sending any distress calls. You can read much more about the Edmund Fitzgerald here. http://www.ssefo.com/info/storm.html

Overnight Storms/Wind Advisory

The weather is turning interesting again. A wind advisory was issued earlier today for areas north of the red line I've posted on the map. Here is the text of that advisory...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1001 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2009
A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY.

...STRONG WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA...

.STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND A POTENT COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA ON MONDAY.

The areas shaded in pink above are indicating a new severe thunderstorm watch for the area. Here's the text of that watch...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 747 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST INDIANA FAR NORTHERN KENTUCKY WESTERN OHIO

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING FROM 1220 AM UNTIL 600 AM EDT.

HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

Fall Color Update and Average 1st Frost/Freeze

Fall continues it's march south. The morning temperatures this past week were more like July than late September, but this week will see a big change. The forecast is calling for daytime highs in the upper 50's and lows in the low 40's. I think we'll see some mid 30's in the morning this upcoming week though. There might even be some patchy frost.
Speaking of frost, the typical date of the first low temperature of 36 or lower for this area is October 3. At 36 degrees, patchy light frost can occur. The typical date of the first low temperature of 32 or lower is October 14. At this temperature, widespread frost will occur with a possibility of a hard freeze in some areas. The typical date of the first low temperature of 28 or lower is October 27. At this temperature, a widespread hard freeze occurs. This will signal the end of the growing season. Data from the Indianapolis NWS. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ind/?n=frostfreezedate

Sydney, Australia Dust Storm

The scene was quite surreal this morning in Sydney, Australia as residents awoke to an orange glow outside their windows. The glow was the result of a massive dust storm that blew into the city from the drought stricken mid-section of the country. Some were shaken by the scene thinking that a catastrophe was upon them like a bush fire or even a nuclear explosion according to one resident. Here's a link where you can watch an 8 minute long news report from Channel 10 in Sydney about the morning's dust storm. If I'm understanding my time line correctly, the dust storm was hitting the area on September 23, but was occurring around 4:00pm September 22 here in Indiana. Sydney is 14 hours ahead of Indiana.

It's Snowing... In Colorado

The first snowfall of the season hit the mountains and foothills west of Denver today. I read a report from a trained spotter 3 miles NNE of Bailey, Colorado who measured 5.5 inches of heavy wet snow. Bailey is at an elevation of 7,756 feet (2,364 meters) though! The heavy snow stayed above 6,500 feet according to a report I read in a Colorado Springs, Colorado newspaper article. Interstate 70 is also icy in spots according to state highway patrol.

Finally Some Rain and Fall Color

It's been several weeks since we've had some appreciable rain. The cutoff low that has been meandering it's way around the Ark-La-Tex has finally been kicked north bringing with it rain and thundershowers. Although 1-2 inches were forecast for the area, only 0.50" have fallen. Still that's better than nothing.
The upcoming week looks to be rather mild and humid with night time lows in the low to mid 60's. That's pretty warm for this time of year considering the longer nights.
The fall color is steadily moving farther south. You can actually see a bit of color in the trees now, but it is patchy. I see a lot of burning bushes that are turning as well as some sugar maples. I'm sure in the next couple of weeks we'll begin to see more and more color. We just need to get those morning temperatures back into the 40's. Last year, I blogged on October 17 that the color was hitting it's peak. I'm thinking we'll probably hit the peak at about the same time this year.

Summer 2009 Summary

Meteorological summer spans from June 1 to August 31. Locally, this has been a rather cool summer with plenty of moisture. There were only two days this summer where the temperature reached 90F (32C) or higher. Interestingly, both days were in June on the 24th and 26th of the month. The temperature reached 93F (34C) on both days. June's mean temperature was 71.3F (21.8C). The highest temperature in July was 86F (30C) on the 10th. July was a very cool month with a mean temperature of only 68.5F (20.2C). The warmest temperature in August was 88F (31.1C) on the 27th. The mean temperature in August was 70.1F (21.1C). The coolest temperature of the summer was on June 5, when the mercury dropped to 45.4F (7.4C). The temperature also dropped to 48F (8.8C) on the 6th. The temperature didn't drop into the 40's again until the last two days of August when the temperature dropped to 48F (8.8C) on the 31st.

Precipitation was plentiful during the summer of 2009. For the entire summer, 14.96 inches (380mm) of rain fell. The wettest month was July with 6.01 inches (152.7mm) falling while June was the driest with only 3.65 inches (92.7mm) falling. During August, 5.30 inches (134.6mm) of rain fell. Most of the rain fell on August 4 with very little rain falling the rest of the month causing some dry conditions.

Here's more information about the rest of Central Indiana from the NWS in Indianapolis.

Summer Climate Summary for Central Indiana

Temperatures
Climatological summer covers the months of June, July, and August. During that period, temperatures averaged below normal across central Indiana. The coolest month during the summer was July. July temperatures averaged 3.5 to 6.5 degrees below average, and the only first order station to reach 90 degrees during the month was Muncie. July 2009 was the 2nd coldest July on record for Indianapolis.

Warm periods did occur in June and August. Most sites saw their warmest periods of the summer in late June, when readings topped out in the lower to middle 90s. Another warm spell occurred in mid August. Interestingly, both the coldest and warmest temperatures for the season happened in June for most sites. The first week of June saw temperatures in the 40s across much of the area. The last week of August also saw readings in the 40s for many areas.

Precipitation
Central Indiana was split in terms of precipitation during the summer, with many areas north of Interstate 70 seeing below normal precipitation and areas south of I-70 seeing above normal precipitation. Muncie had a little over 50% of the rainfall normally seen during the summer, while Indianapolis had 130%. It was an even wetter summer just south and east of Indianapolis. Portions of Shelby, Decatur, Brown, Bartholomew, Jackson and Jennings counites received over 20 inches of rain during the summer. This is nearly twice the normal summer rainfall.

August Summary

Locally, August turned out to be much warmer than July, but considering how cool July was that isn't saying much. The warmest temperature was 88F (31.1C) on the 27th of the month and the coolest was 48F (8.8C) on the 31st of the month. Rainfall was greater than normal for the month with 5.3 inches (134mm) falling. Most of that rain came on August 4 when 4.32 inches (110mm) fell causing significant flooding across the area.

Here's a bit more information about the rest of the state from the NWS in Indianapolis.

August 2009 Climate Summary
August 2009 was an active weather month. Severe weather, flash flooding, river flooding, dry spells, summer warmth and cool spells were all part of the weather during August. August monthly temperatures averaged below normal, but not nearly as cool as July. Monthly precipitation departures were split nearly down the middle. About half of the area received normal to above normal rainfall and the other half received below normal rainfall.

Temperatures
Temperatures during August 2009 rebounded from the record to near record cool July weather. Average monthly temperatures during August were 1 to 2 degrees warmer than in July. Normally the average monthly temperature declines nearly 2 degrees from July to August.

The cool weather pattern similar to July lingered over central Indiana for portions of August. August monthly temperatures averaged slightly below normal to 3 degrees below normal. August began on the cool side and warmed up by August 8 with the return of summer heat. Seasonable to above normal temperatures continued through August 21. During this period, temperatures reached the low 90s in much of central Indiana. After, a short cool spell from August 22-24, seasonable temperatures returned again from August 25-28. August ended on a very cool note. No temperature records were set at Indianapolis this month.

At Indianapolis, there were 15 days with below normal temperatures, 15 days with above normal temperatures, and 1 day with exactly normal temperatures.

August 2009 tied as the 51st coolest in the Indianapolis area since 1871.

Precipitation
August 2009 was a rather dry month for much of southwest Indiana and portions of east central Indiana. The remainder of central and southern Indiana was normal or on the wet side. The wettest area was southeast Indiana…where a few locations received over 10 inches of rain. The driest areas were in southwest Indiana. A few locations received less than one half inch of rain. About 60 % of central and southern Indiana received 2 to 5 inches of rain during August.

The largest rain for August, in much of central Indiana, occurred on August 4. Portions of central and southeast Indiana received 3 to nearly 8 inches of rain. The Indianapolis International Airport set a daily rainfall record with 3.81 inches. This is the typical amount of rain the Indianapolis International Airport receives for the entire month of August.

The ensuing river flood along the East Fork White River from Columbus in Bartholomew County to Bedford in Lawrence County was the highest ever for the month of August. The river flood along the East Fork White River from Williams Dam in Lawrence County to Petersburg in Pike County was the highest for the month of August since 1979.

After August 4 little rain fell in central Indiana until August 17. From August 17-20 much of central Indiana received 1 to 3 inches of rain. This rain alleviated the dry conditions that existed in many areas north of Interstate 70.

August 2009 ranked as the 27th wettest in the Indianapolis area since 1871.

As an interesting note, the months of April, May, June, July and August have brought a combined rainfall to Indianapolis of 30.06 inches. This is the 3rd wettest combined April through August since 1871 and the wettest since 1957.

Severe Weather
Severe storms from early morning through mid afternoon on August 4 brought a tornado, damaging winds, hail, copious rainfall and flash flooding to central Indiana. National Weather Service teams determined a weak EF1 tornado struck Eminence and winds in excess of 60 mph occurred over a large portion of northern Brown County. Flash flooding in portions of Morgan, Johnson, Shelby, and Bartholomew counties resembled conditions of June 2008. Severe flash flooding occurred in Decatur, Jennings and northern Jackson counties. For a more detailed review of the events of August 4 go to http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ind/?n=aug0409storms on the web.

2009-2010 Winter Weather Predictions

Oh boy, Oh boy! It's out. The 2010 winter forecast by the Farmer's Almanac is out and it's calling for a cold winter. :-) You can see Indiana is divided between the Bitterly Cold and Dry (booooo) and the Very Cold and Snowy (Yayyyy). I've never kept track of the almanac forecast, but some say they are pretty good at predicting what the upcoming season will be like. I certainly hope we have a harsh winter with a lot of bitter cold air and heavy snow. Time will tell though.
For a complete explanation of the forecast, check out the Farmer's Almanac website here.