Boring Weather

I don't believe the weather could be any more boring than it has been lately. The first nine days of November have seen above normal temperatures and only 0.01" of rainfall. Unfortunately, the next ten days are likely going to be more of the same.

Snow and Ice Cover

There's been a significant increase in the snow and ice cover across the north pole, Canada, and Russia over the last month. The map on the left is from October 5 and the map on the right is from today, November 5.
Out of the five winter forecasts I've read, all but one are thinking our area will have a much colder and wetter winter than normal. The exception is from the National Weather Service. They are saying that ElNino will strengthen and bring our area a mild and dry winter. Let's hope that's not true. In winter's past, I've kept a close eye on long range forecasts, and usually ended up being greatly disappointed when things didn't work out the way I wanted. So... this winter, I'm not going to pay attention to anything other than the local news and the NWS website.

October Summary from NWS

From the NWS in Indianapolis:
Central Indiana October 2009 Climate Summary

October 2009 was a cold and very wet month. November like weather persisted for much of the first 18 days of October. From the 14th through the 16th temperatures did not reach 50 degrees in much of central Indiana. Maximum temperatures warmed by more than 20 degrees after the 19th. After beginning very cool, temperatures reached 70 degrees in many areas on the 21st, 23rd and 30th. The warm and rainy weather on the 30th stripped most of the remaining leaves from the trees.

Temperatures

Monthly temperatures during October 2009 averaged well below normal. Temperature departures ranged from 1 to nearly 5 degrees below normal. Compared to September, average temperatures declined 15 to 17 degrees. Typically temperatures fall around 12 degrees from September to October.

October began cold and remained cold through 18th. Temperatures did not rise out of the 40s in many areas from the 14th – 16th. Above normal temperatures generally prevailed after the 19th. Most areas reached the 70 degree mark several times from the 21st -30th. A few areas near the Ohio River in southeast Indiana touched 80 degrees on the 30th.

The growing season ended in all of central Indiana by the 18th. The coldest temperatures of the month occurred on the 18th when the temperature fell into the upper 20s to low 30s. No temperature records were set at Indianapolis this month.

At Indianapolis, there were 21 days with below normal temperatures, 9 days with above normal temperatures, and 1 day with exactly normal temperatures.

October 2009 tied for the 19th coldest in the Indianapolis area since 1871.

Precipitation

October 2009 was a very wet month for all of central Indiana. Rainfall exceeded 3 times the normal in areas of southern Indiana. Monthly rainfall ranged around 4½ inches to more than 10 inches in south central Indiana. Rain was so frequent that the Indiana agricultural community on October 20th set a new record low harvest pace for soybeans with only 34 percent harvested. The old record low for that date was 39 percent harvested in 1990. The longest dry period in October was only 5 or 6 days.

Unusual October river flooding occurred along the White River in southwest Indiana following rains of 2 to nearly 5 inches on the 8th and 9th. Lowland flooding lasted less than 2 days. Rain of 1 to 2 inches on the 30th pushed the Wabash, White and East Fork White Rivers in southern Indiana to near bank full levels.

October 2009 tied for the 9th wettest in the Indianapolis area since 1871.

October Summary

It's a great Halloween evening. There's even a full moon out tonight! An awesome night for ghosts and goblins to go trick-or-treating!
As I suspected, the rain last night didn't amount to much. Only 0.59" of rain fell overnight. Although the forecast called for some light rain and clouds this morning, it turned out to be dry and sunny. It was actually a nice day for the end of October.
October ended up being 2.6 degrees below normal with a mean temperature of 50.7F (10.3C). The warmest temperature was 77.6F (25.3C) on the 30th of the month and the coldest temperature was 27.9F (-2.3C) on the 18th. As for precipitation, October ended up being 1.94" above normal with a total of 4.79" for the month. No snow fell during the month.

Halloween Snowstorm

This should turn out to be quite a memorable Halloween for many kids across the Front Range of Colorado and Wyoming. In this photo, you can see 21" (53cm) of snow piling up on the deck behind this house in Rollinsville, Colorado which is just west of Denver at an elevation of 9,200 feet (2,804meters). The city itself also saw a foot of snow causing traffic trouble and closed schools. Of course, this area of the country is well prepared for such a storm and managed to get through it just fine. Temperatures this upcoming week in the Denver metro area are forecast to be in the 50's and 60's. All but the big piles of snow in the parking lots will be nothing more than a memory next week.

Back at home, the weather has been somewhat interesting. The high temperature today reached 78F (26C) which was the warmest day since September 22. In fact, this was only the second day in October in which the temperature rose above 70 degrees. That's very unusual. Typically, we'll have about 7-8 days above 70 degrees in October. All of the warm weather of today was surging north ahead of a cold front. In fact, the warmth was coming in on strong winds. The peak wind gust today was 37mph (60kph) from the south. Although heavy rain was forecast for today, it seems that most of the rain has fallen apart the closer it moved towards us. We're getting some showers now, but I don't think they will add up to the 1 to 1.5 inches forecast earlier.

Halloween Weather

Although Halloween is the last day of October, it can be quite warm at this time of year. Here's a perfect example; the high temperature in Bloomington, Indiana was 88F (31C) on Halloween in 1950. I wonder if the residents of Bloomington were screaming "global warming"? :-)

Although records go back to 1871 in Indianapolis, 1954 in Lafayette, and 1895 in Bloomington, my records only go back 12 years to 1997. Nonetheless, the coldest maximum high I've recorded for October 31 was 46F (7C) in 2002. The warmest maximum high was 75F (24C) just one year later in 2003. The coldest low for the day was 35F (2C) in 2006. The warmest low was 63F (17C) in 2003. As for precipitation, I've not recorded any snow in the last 12 years on October 31 and barely any rain. A Trace of rain was recorded in 1997, 0.18" was recorded in 1998, and 0.13" was recorded in 2006.

Fall Color Quickly Fading

The fall color is quickly fading. The tree at right is in my backyard and it has lost nearly half of it's leaves. The early morning rain and wind brought a lot of the leaves down. I'm sure that by next weekend, there will be far fewer leaves on the trees if any at all. Some trees however, are holding on tight to their leaves. The pear trees in my yard are still green mostly. They usually hold on to their leaves until Thanksgiving! Based on what I see around the area, the fall color map from the Weather Channel is not very accurate. Of course, what from the weather channel is accurate? Anyway, it gives a general idea of what's going on.
Although 1-2 inches of rain was forecast for the area, 0.81 inches actually fell. Some areas to our west did receive over an inch of rain, but it seemed the rain really fell apart as it moved towards the east.