The forecast models have once again picked up on a potent winter storm that may affect our area February 21-23. I'm by no means an expert and don't fully understand how these things work, but the forecast model I look at suggests that this may just be a rain maker for us. A heavy rain maker that is. Models are showing 0.75 to 1 inch of moisture with this storm. If that were to be all snow it would be 8-12" (20-30cm) of snow. The blue line on this map going through northern Ohio and Indiana is the freezing line. South of this line temperatures will be above freezing. This could change a dozen times between now and Sunday, so I don't know what's going to happen. Some of the blogs and forums I read about the weather are all saying that this could be a strong storm with snow for our area. I hope they are right. Time will tell though and I'm not going to get too excited about all of this. All of the forecast models should have a really good understanding of what's going to happen by Saturday. As I said earlier, a lot can happen with these models over the next three days and will. Keep your fingers crossed for snow!
Here is a recent statement from the NWS in Indianapolis:
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
330 PM EST WED FEB 17 2010
DISCUSSION... BIG SNOWSTORM POTENTIAL SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.
SYSTEM FOR LATE SUNDAY TO LATE MONDAY NIGHT...STORM CURRENTLY OFFSHORE WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN STRENGTHENING STORM AS IT MOVES UP THE OHIO RIVER MONDAY AND INTO OHIO MONDAY NIGHT. DRAWING GULF MOISTURE NORTH AND WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG LIFT...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS EXCEEDING THIS PAST TUESDAYS STORM. BIG QUESTION IS HOW CLOSE TO OHIO RIVER STORM TRACKS AND AMOUNT OF WARMTH DRAWN INTO SYSTEM. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR A RAIN SNOW MIX FOR COUNTIES ALONG EAST FORK WHITE RIVER WHICH WOULD HOLD SNOW AMOUNTS THERE DOWN AND PUSH HEAVY SNOW AXIS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70. BOTTOM LINE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT TO START NEXT WEEK AGAIN BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT ON WHO WILL SEE HEAVIEST SNOW AMOUNTS. ALSO POTENTIAL FOR START AND END TIME OF THIS STORM TO SLIP 12 HOURS EITHER WAY. LATER MODEL RUNS SHOULD HELP RESOLVE THIS ISSUE.